Beautiful Horizons

Deathwatch Party!

Although the Roman Catholic in me finds the whole activity somewhat distasteful, I can certainly understand some of the glee that is going on Calle Ocho in Miami right now, but everyone should sit back and take a deep breath: does anyone really believe that if Fidel Castro dies today that the doors will be flung open tomorrow with Raúl Castro hugging Luis Posada Carriles and both saying all is forgiven?

There's forty+ years of rage and fury coming from both sides. It will take someone with a great deal of calm and good judgment to lead Cuba. Unfortunately that person is not Raúl Castro, nor is that person living in Miami, Hialeah, Madrid, Barcelona or Union City.

It also won't be one person, it will be a movement and the movement will achieve its goals peacefully. That movement will come from within Cuba, for that's where any lasting change for that nation must originate.

Boz has some cogent thoughts on the situation in Cuba.

Strange Praise

Castro's Cuba embraces an independent judiciary and fair trials!

Cuba applauded a U.S. federal appeals court decision to throw out the convictions and sentences of five Cuban intelligence agents, saying Wednesday that it was a "happy day" on the island.

A statement on the front page of the Communist Party daily Granma called Tuesday's ruling "ethical" and urged Cubans to be patient as the men, known locally as the "Five Heroes," prepare for a new trial.

At least as long as the independent judiciary and fair trials are not in Cuba. While I think it is reasonable (and agreewith the decision) to expect that the defendants would not receive a fair trial in south Florida, it is incredibly risible that Castro would be cheering the Yanquis doing something that would never happen in his Cuba.

All Dissent Is Opposition

Courtesy of Marc Cooper, I'd like to point out this article by Ann Bardach in Slate. Read it and try not to get furious.

Adam Isacson also explains here why Colombian President Álvaro Uribe may be just a little soft on the AUC, little regard for freedom of the press and seems to have friends in distasteful places:

On May 16^th, funeral wreaths arrived at the offices of three Colombian journalists known for their critical stance toward the Uribe government. They came with cards inviting the recipients to their own burials. One of the three, Daniel Coronell, received a separate floral arrangement bearing the names of his wife and six-year-old daughter.

[...]

Coronell had begun to receive threats at the end of April. “Some anonymous coward called to say, amid horrible namecalling, that he would kill my daughter, my wife and me,” Coronell wrote in his column. “Since then he has called again with information about where we lived, my daily schedule and my family’s routine.”

Coronell received several other threats via e-mail, and colleagues received e-mails threatening him as well. They came from somebody identifying himself as “Zarovich” (the name of a prince of imperial Russia), from the e-mail address ojrana2000@yahoo.com (the Ojrana was the name of the czar’s secret police).

With help from technicians, Coronell tracked the e-mails back to their source. They came from a computer in the Bogotá mansion of Carlos Náder Simmonds, a former congressman and large landowner from the paramilitary-dominated department of Córdoba in northern Colombia. The 59-year-old former politician – who, according to Coronell, “is such a Russian history enthusiast that his son is named Dmitri” – admitted that the threats came from his computer, but denied that he had sent them.

It gets worse:

Náder has a shady past. In 1983, while a member of Congress from Córdoba, he was arrested and later found guilty by a New York court of trying to sell cocaine to a DEA agent. He spent at least three years in a U.S. prison. He was close enough to Medellín Cartel chief Pablo Escobar that, in 1990, recordings of phone conversations surfaced in which Náder calls Escobar “brother” and “compadre,” they discuss threats against César Gaviria (then a presidential candidate) and the daily newspaper El Tiempo, and Náder expresses support for the 1989 assassination of popular presidential candidate Luis Carlos Galán (“better dead than a son of a b***h”).

This has not kept Náder from being close to those in power in Colombia, including President Álvaro Uribe himself. Journalist Fernando Garavito – who left Colombia in 2002 after publishing allegations that Uribe has ties to Colombia’s criminal underworld – calls Náder “one of the links between the country’s rulers, the corrupt politicians and the capos of the drug trade.”

Náder has sought to defend himself from charges of threatening Coronell by pointing out that as many as 40 people, including President Uribe’s two sons, have used his computer while visiting his house in the recent past. [my emphasis]

Much worse:

According to Náder himself, President Uribe even celebrated the 2004 New Year together with the convicted former narco-trafficker in the town of Ríonegro, just outside Medellín. “It is difficult to understand why the President shares his family with someone who served a prison term in the United States for cocaine trafficking, without this being seen as a moral impediment,” notes El Espectador columnist Ramiro Bejarano.

The Lord of the Shadows, a very unauthorized biography of Uribe that Fernando Garavito co-wrote in 2002 with Newsweek reporter Joseph Contreras, points out that Náder cannot enter the United States because of his past drug conviction. “But his wife, Ana Trejos, who is a gringa, hosts the candidate [Uribe] and his family during their visits to Miami, and Náder himself is their host in a luxurious apartment that he bought in Madrid, thanks to the illegal multi-million-dollar commissions he gained by skimming funds from the construction of the Urrá dam [in Tierrralta, Córdoba, the same municipality as Santa Fé de Ralito, where paramilitary leaders are currently negotiating with the Colombian government]. Náder is a man of the dark side, who knows many episodes of Uribe’s past and who guards them closely in his memory to use them when he believes them to be useful for his own interests.”

So to commenter Álvaro, do you understand now why I remain unimpressed by President Uribe?

More on the De-Dollarization of Cuba

As I suspoected, one of the reasons why Castro was moving Cuba away from using the dollar was to substitute another hard currency and Forbes is reporting that may very well be the Euro:

Communist officials are thinking about extending the use of the euro beyond a few resorts for vacationing Europeans as the country moves to halt widespread use of the American dollar, Cuba's tourism minister said Wednesday.

Since Fidel Castro's government decided to replace the U.S. dollar with the local Cuban convertible peso, authorities "have been studying coordinating with Cuba's Central Bank to extend the acceptance of the euro in other areas of the country, Tourism Minister Manuel Marrero said.

Doesn't that first sentence show what an utter sham communism is? It reminds me of the scene in Network when Ned Beatty reads the riot act to Peter Finch:

What do you think the Russians talk about in their councils of state? Karl Marx? They get out their linear programming charts, statistical decision theories, minimax solutions, and compute the price-cost probabilities of their transactions, just like we do.

This is the real reason why the dollar is being dumped:

In a move aimed at discouraging people on the island from using dollars, banks and exchange houses will now levy a 10 percent charge to change dollars for the convertible pesos.

There will be no such charge to change euros and other convertible foreign currencies including British sterling pounds, Swiss francs and Canadian dollars.

Marrero acknowledged that those likely to be hardest hit by the change are Cubans living in the United States and the relatives here they have traditionally sent U.S. dollar remittances. Now, those who receive remittances in American money will now get 90 cents for each U.S. dollar when they change them into convertible pesos.

As is this:

But people are already moving to change their bills into other currencies before the Nov. 8 deadline.

Long lines of people formed outside exchange houses this week as people rushed to change American bills into Cuban pesos, a separate national currency that trades at 26 to the dollar.

and this:

The lines were expected to continue on Thursday, when the exchange houses were planning to start large scale conversions of U.S. dollars into Cuban convertible pesos that trade at one-to-one. [my emphasis]

Just a great big stab in the back for his citizens as the public coffers get pumped up. What a bastard.

Castro Moving Away From the Dollar

Fidel Castro is seeking to limit the use of the dollar in Cuba by assessing a 10% commission for exchanging dollars.

Foreign executives said the impact on their operations will be negligible. Western diplomats saw the announcement as a clever bid to rake in dollars the cash-strapped state needs to import food and oil.

As of Nov. 8, the Central Bank decreed that Cubans, foreign residents and tourists will have to use locally printed convertible pesos, pegged at present to the dollar, for cash purchases in stores, restaurants and other businesses.

Both of the comments in the first paragraph are probably true, but that doesn't stop Bloomberg.com from swallowing the Bush administration triumphalism here:

Castro's move is "an act of economic desperation and a clear signal that President Bush's strengthened policies towards Cuba have hurt the Castro regime,'' Juan Carlos Zarate, the U.S. Department of the Treasury's assistant secretary for terrorist financing and financial crime, said in a statement.

What the Bloomberg report fails to mention and the Reuters report does mention is this:

A 10-percent commission will be charged for changing dollars into pesos, but not for other currencies. [my emphasis]

Advantage, Reuters. So what I imagine Castro, the old bastard, is trying to do is a twofold scheme:

1.) Get a fast infusion of dollars as people rush to beat the deadline and pocketing ten cents on the dollar for a while as dollar remittances continue.

2.) Shift his focus from the dollar to the Euro and if the folks at Bloomberg would bother to read their own website, they might have seen the case for this.

What I think will eventually happen is that the Cuban-American community in Miami will start setting up a system to send remittances in Euros and who can blame them? Meanwhile, these comments really encapsulate the situation:

Western observers said the measure would allow the Central Bank to quickly absorb dollars now on the island.

"They just want to get those dollars out from under the mattresses and get people to start using Mickey Mouse money," said a European diplomat, who asked not to be named.

[...]

Ordinary Cubans, facing the 10 percent levy, said they were paying for the ideological war between Washington and Havana. Some said they would ask relatives in Miami to start sending euros.

"Fidel wants to recover the greenbacks and squeeze the people," grumbled Alfredo, a cafeteria employee.

[...]

Some Cubans said they were not concerned about the switch.

"I don't think about it. I'm leaving the country," a Havana resident said.

I couldn't agree more with all three of them.

Congress Says No to Travel Restrictions

Meanwhile, the House of Representatives has voted 225-174 deny funding to to implement the Draconian travel restrictions to Cuba that President Bush implemented earlier this year. As usual, the simple-minded Lincoln Diaz-Balart gets it all wrong:

Rep. Lincoln Diaz-Balart, a Miami Republican, called supporters of the amendment ''arrogant'' for believing that they know what's best for Cuban Americans, noting that the four members of Congress of Cuban descent backed the restrictions.

Rep. William Delahunt, D-Mass., displayed a photo of Cuban-born medic Carlos Lazo, who is serving in Iraq and is unable to visit his sons in Cuba. ``This American hero is abetting terrorism? Come on, that is offensive.''

as does the equally simple-minded Tom Delay:

The debate turned impassioned at times, with DeLay saying that any lifting of the trade and travel ban with Cuba would allow Americans to buy fine cigars and cheap sugar from the island but "at a cost of our national honor.''

Tom Delay talking about national honor? What's next? Child-rearing tips from Michael Jackson? Fine vegetarian dining by Hannibal Lecter? Hair styling and the value of marital fidelity by Donald Trump and Rudolph Giuliani?

More Softening of Cuban-American Support for Bush

You'vo got to love this - unless you're Karl Rove:

Speaking at a Democratic Party rally Tuesday in Little Havana, a prominent Miami exile figure denounced President Bush as leading ``probably the worst administration we've ever had on Cuban policy.''

The remark by Joe Garcia, former executive director of the Cuban American National Foundation, signals what could be an unprecedented battle for Hispanic voters in the upcoming presidential race.

''Part of it is our fault,'' Garcia said. ``Because he's been saying exactly what we want to hear -- words like freedom, democracy, liberty. But he hasn't done anything to bring this about in Cuba.''

Garcia left CANF this month to accept a post with the New Democrat Network, a recruitment arm of the Democratic National Party that is launching a $6 million media campaign targeting Hispanics.

All I can say is wow! Things are not nearly as monolithic as Rove and the Republicans would like to believe.

The event drew about 200 people, but catered to Cuban-American voters such as Rosanne Vazquez, a Miami Lakes physical therapist.

''I've always been a Republican, but I'm undecided this year,'' said Vazquez, 35.

``Bush has done an OK job, but I'm concerned about the war.''

Vazquez said her friend Mariela Fuentes, also Cuban American, persuaded her to attend.

''I was raised in a Republican home,'' said Fuentes, a New Jersey native who later moved to Miami.

"And then I got an education. Now that I know better, I'm a Democrat.'' [my emphasis]

Ouch!

I really think that this is more of a generational shift than anything else. Consider this:

Garcia previously served as chairman of the Public Services Commission under Democratic Gov. Lawton Chiles. He said wanted to be involved in the 2004 election.

"We should advocate for a better long-term Cuba policy with anyone who will listen," Garcia said. "The Democrats are listening."

Garcia had the support of CANF chairman Jorge Mas Santos.

"We don't want the extreme left of the Democratic Party to guide the Cuba policy or thinking on Cuba," Mas Santos said. "It is important to keep all the bases covered because we don't know who is going to win in November and we can't be so irresponsible as to put Cuba's fate in the hands of one person or one party."

Very interesting - and prudent, if you ask me.

Froomkin On Cuba

Michael Froomkin - who has been doing yeoman's work on the Abu Ghraib and the torture memo issues - has a good wrap-up on some recent news concerning Cuban-American relations and some not-quite-what-they-expected reactions from the exile community.

Cuba Roundup

The day before yesterday the New York Times ran this article about the Spanish petroleum company, Repsol YPF establishing a joint venture with Cuba to look for oil off of Cuba's Northwest coast. Obviously it's a long way between looking and finding oil, but this could change the monetary equation for Castro's Cuba far more than US tourist dollars. Even Dick Cheney's former firm is hungering for a taste:

Halliburton, the nation's largest oil services company, is among the wary watchers. John Gibson, president of Halliburton's energy services group, recently said in a speech to employees that he favored lifting economic sanctions against Cuba, as well as Libya and Iran.

"Sanctions are a very U.S.-centric thing, and I believe that free enterprise will establish better relationships," Mr. Gibson said, according to The Associated Press. "There are foreign companies making money in those countries, and I think American companies should have a shot at those markets as well."

On the other hand, if oil were to be discovered, it would strip Castro of what little credibility remains for his excuse for all the ills of Cuba: the US embargo.

Meanwhile, Oswaldo Payá is urging exiles in Miami to join Cubans on the island to take part in planning for the nation's transition to democracy:

Payá's 48-page Transition Project outlines proposals on everything from human rights to reconciliation in Cuba. The project is meant to provide the framework for changes if the Cuban government ever honors Payá's petition drive, known as the Varela Project, seeking a referendum on democratic reforms.

[...]

Payá's Transition Project outlines proposals for public health, education, transportation and economic reforms. It suggests a general political amnesty, the abolition of the death penalty and the demilitarization of society.

Remarks collected from exiles will be forwarded to Havana in November and added to opinions gathered across the island. A final draft will be turned over to the National Assembly as early as February.

I'm sure they'll do what they did before and not act on it. Nevertheless, it's another terrific idea.

Meanwhile, the House of Representatives voted to overturn restrictions on gift parcels that Cuban-Americans can send to family members in Cuba:

The 221-194 vote was won by a coalition in which Democrats were joined by nearly four dozen farm-state and free-trade Republicans to rebuff the president. The vote came just four months from an Election Day in which Bush would like to once again win Florida, the pivotal state in his 2000 victory, by gaining the support of that state's Cuban-Americans.

The House vote followed a familiar pattern of recent years in which the Republican-run House - and sometimes the Senate - has voted to block Bush policies restricting trade and travel with Cuba, which communist leader Fidel Castro has now run for more than four decades. Last year, both chambers voted to end curbs on travel to Cuba by Americans, only to see lawmakers back away after Bush issued a veto threat.

Wednesday's debate was an emotional one, as the debates over Cuba policy often are.

"It's hard to think of an economic sanction that does more harm to the welfare of families in Cuba, or does more to make the U.S. seem mean-spirited toward families who already have the misfortune to live under communism," said Rep. Jeff Flake, R-Ariz., one of the sponsors.

Rep. Lincoln Diaz-Balart, R-Fla., a Cuban-American, said the proposal was "dishonest" and "condescending," adding, "It seeks to undermine an entire policy President Bush has just implemented ... to hasten the Democratic transition in Cuba."

Somehow the words travel ban and embargo don't seem to have hastened anything in Cuba and certainly not a democratic transition.

Kerry on Cuba - The Reaction

The right has been quick to jump on the Kerry-bashing bandwagon regarding the Senator's lukewarm support for the Varela Project as I wrote about here. I was referred to as being "curiously soft" on Kerry by Tacitus in this post never mind the fact that I said that Kerry was "rightfully being taken to task" for his lukewarm support of the Varela Project, a tone which was similar to the writer of the article, Andrés Oppenheimer.