Beautiful Horizons

I'm Not Surprised

Much seems to be made of the fact that after the horrific earthquake in Chile last month, the military was sent on to the streets to help preserve order and the public approved.

I don't really understand the surprise. I have read any number of accounts as to how the military has accepted a role subordinate to civilian authority. As the linked article notes, Pinochet's grandson was booted from the military the day after he gave a defiant eulogy at Pinochet's funeral. The defense minister in the Lagos administration was tortured by Pinochet's regime. Her fine work as defense minister helped her get elected the first woman president in what is arguably the most socially conservative country in South America. She left office with approval ratings that would be the envy of virtually every democratic leader in the world.

The country is a different place these days.

Bachelet and the Military

This article in the Los Angeles Times is the only one I have come across among the many that seem determined to question Chilean President, Michelle Bachelet's timing as to when she called out the military to maintain order after the earthquake in Chile on February 27 that addresses this fact:

Long before her election four years ago, Bachelet worked to build a good relationship with Chile's democracy-era military. Under the presidency of mentor Ricardo Lagos, she served as defense minister, the first woman to hold that post in South America. Her work in cultivating mutual trust was instrumental in her victory in the 2006 election.

I think it's inappropriate to second-guess her in this instance. As has been noted, communications were interrupted. I think her prudence should be applauded.

Is the Concertacion Dead?

I think it's safe to say as Greg, Marc, and Boz in comments on Greg's post as well as Marco Enríquez-Ominami, the former Socialist who ran as an independent for president, that the Concertacion is dead.

The Concertacion was a center-left coalition that united initially to put an end to the rule of Pinochet in the 1988 plebiscite. It has ruled Chile since Patricio Aylwin became president in 1990, but it appears that it has now outlived it's usefulness.

Robert Funk has some very good points worth checking out. I agree with him that this is not a generational shift. Chile has the second oldest median age in South America after Uruguay. I do believe, however, that a more appealing candidate would have driven more people to the poles. It would have been hard for the Concertacion to have brought up a worse candidate than Eduardo Frei.

I also believe that Funk nails it as to where the major change will be: foreign policy. 

This is a Good Start

Chilean President-elect Michelle Bachelet appears to be making an effort to mend fences in her own backyard and she is to be commended for this statement alone: "The best thing that can happen to Chile is that Peru, Bolivia and Argentina develop well." Some will argue that it just makes sense, but she's starting out well regarding her neighbors.

I urge you to read the entire article.

I also recommend Adam Isacson's numerical review of Plan Colombia.

I'll be back tomorrow.

Views on Michelle Bachelet

Lots of views on Michelle Bachelet, both in mainstream media and in the blogosphere. One source that you may not otherwise find is the English language version of the Spanish paper, El País, which you can download as a PDF file here. It also features some commentary by Antonio Skármeta, the noted Chilean writer (most famous for The Postman).

Please note, however, that the link is ephemeral. As the paper changes every day, the link remains the same. So, if you want to read it, you'll need to download it by no later than 4 p.m. EST tomorrow (that's the time it usually changes). I also recommend their Wednesday Latin America Roundup. It's informed, albeit brief and well worth your time.

Now's the Hard Part

Michelle Bachelet, about whose possible presidential candidacy I posted about for the first time more than two years ago, has been elected President of Chile. Now comes the hard part: governing.

As Marc Cooper notes here, despite the largely positive press that Chile gets, there is a lot of room for improvement, especially in labor law and the vaunted privatized pension system. Indeed, although the pension issue did come up as a significant issue in this election and have gotten a great deal of attention recently, warnings about Chile's pension system have been around for several years and concerns about privatization of Latin America's pensions in general have been voiced for at least the past couple of years.

As I mentioned in the post from a couple of years ago and as I posted on Cooper's blog, the issue of the military's finances remains of some concern:

A Pinochet-era constitution gave the armed forces four seats in the Senate that are not subject to election.

The president does not have the power to fire commanders in chief, and the same commanders are part of a security council that limits presidential power. The military budget, which includes a big subsidy from state-owned copper company Codelco, is off limits to Congress and the executive.

"A country cannot be left naked, without defense, because you can't just improvise defense when you need it. Today, since we are at peace, fortunately all the spending looks superfluous, but defense is about prevention," Bachelet said.

This year's military budget is 1.3 percent of gross domestic product, which is forecast at about $65 billion. Bachelet rejects criticisms that that is a bigger proportion than most of Chile's neighbors, saying that each country uses a different methodology to measure the military budget.

The subsidy from Codelco, the copper industry that Allende nationalized and Pinochet kept nationalized (kind of shatters that image as the great free marketer doesn't it?) earmarks 10% of Codelco's earnings for the military.  Chile's current President, Ricardo Lagos (a socialist) wants to privatize Codelco.  I do not claim to be an expert on Chile's security, however, I also do not think that their military needs to be as big as it is.  I also happen to think that it should be under civilian control.  This is one legacy of Pinochet's that needs to be changed, but with a senate including unelected senators stacked against such a change it doesn't seem likely.

The issue of the unelected senators has been resolved. One issue that has been persistently raise by the coalition that Bachelet's Socialist party is a part of is that the Pinochet-era constitution stifled their ability to effect reforms. Now that issue is resolved and they no longer have that as an excuse. Only time will tell if they can step up and make the changes.

A Couple of Short Takes

What Marc and Boz said about the Chilean election.

Sharper than a serpent's tooth is an ungrateful child.

Down to the Wire for Michelle Bachelet

Chile's presidential election is set for a week from Sunday, and while I normally leave the flogging of polls to Boz, there is some very good news and a little bad news for Michelle Bachelet in this poll.

First the bad news. She will probably have to have a run-off with the right-wing candidate, Sebastian Piñera as it doesn't seem that she will get more than 50% of the vote in the first round.

Now for the good news as quoted from the above link:

• The poll showed that Bachelet, who has intensified her campaign in recent weeks, would beat Piñera in a run-off, with 47 percent of votes compared with almost 40 percent for Piñera.
• Piñera, one of Chile's wealthiest people, who has pledged to create 1 million new jobs if he has elected, had 22 percent support in the poll, up from 21 percent in the same company's September poll. [...]  Another opposition candidate, conservative Joaquin Lavin, who has run an anti-crime campaign, had 16 percent support, unchanged from the previous IPSOS poll. [...]  Tomas Hirsch, a leftist candidate who has questioned Chile's free-market economic model, saw his support rise to almost 8 percent from 3 percent in the last IPSOS poll.
• When the IPSOS poll strips out undecided voters and people who said they would leave their ballot blank or spoil it, Bachelet's support rises to close to 46 percent, still not enough to win in the first round this month.

So with Lavin remaining flat and Piñera largely unchanged while Hirsch has gained five points, it appears clear why Bachelet has declined somewhat. As the article notes, voters may well be throwing some support to Hirsch knowing that they will still have the option to vote for Bachelet in the second round.

What I find compelling is the decline in support for Lavin. Lavin barely lost to current president Ricardo Lago in 1999, but it appears that now he is scrambling for his political life. It seems to prove the point that not only is Pinochet irrelevant, but that he still has a taint about him for those with ties to him.

Michelle Bachelet - The Latest

Michelle Bachelet continues to solidify her support for her campaign as Chile's first woman president:

• The Christian Democrats, part of the coalition known as the Concertacion which has governed Chile quite well  post-Pinochet, threw its support to Bachelet, a member of the Socialist Party.
• The latest poll shows Bachelet leading her two conservative opponents, Sebastian Piñera and Joaquin Lavin by twenty five points. Even if their support were combined, Bachelet would still be leading by nine points and she would trounce either one of them in runoff scenarios.

The campaign appears to be her's to lose and barring a force majeure she will probably be Chile's first woman president.

Soledad Alvear and Michelle Bachelet are Leading the Polls

I have posted on several occasions about the fact that Soledad Alvear and Michelle Bachelet appear to be the frontrunners in this year's presidential election in Chile.  It now appears that both of them have large leads over their closest rivals and the likelihood that one of them will be elected president this year seems to be significant. This could be a tranformative moment for Chilean society:

In this socially conservative country where domestic violence is common and women earn much less than men, the two top parties have selected female nominees, virtually ensuring that Chile will get its first female head of state.

Opinion polls show the two women, Michelle Bachelet and Soledad Alvear, commanding huge leads over all other rivals for the Dec. 12 elections.

"There are still some macho attitudes in our country, but all opinion polls show that a major cultural change has occurred in that respect," Alvear said. "The time has come for a woman president."

Their early emergence indicates an important shift in attitudes in this South American country, where growing public disgruntlement with politics as usual is creating new political opportunities for women.

"Women are seen as more honest, more concerned about the poor and more democratic," said Maria de los Angeles Fernandez, a political scientist at Diego Portales University.

I wonder how much this is a reaction to the Pinochet-Riggs-Citibank scandal.