Beautiful Horizons

There may Be Other Reasons As Well

Boz rightfully praises Brazil for agreeing to go along with the additional sanctions on Iran in the UN Security Council, but I think there's something more to it as well.

The tone of the criticism of Lula in Iran regarding his offer of asylum to Sakineh Mohammadi Ashtiani, the woman who faced death by stoning for adultery had to have stung. Lula's offer was referred to as "emotional," as if one could not be repulsed by the concept in this day and age of stoning to death.

I believe that Lula's offer was genuine, if way too late, and offered as a compassionate gesture. This could well be payback for mocking his compassion. If so, bem feito (Portuguese for they got what they deserved).

Why Is Anyone Surprised By This?

Lula unenthusiastically offers asylum to Sakineh Mohammadi Ashtiani, the Iranian woman sentenced to death by stoning for adultery:

"I have to respect a country's laws, but if my friendship and regard I have for the president of Iran and the Iranian people is worth something, if this woman is causing discomfort, we could take her in in Brazil," he said.

I can understand Lula's interest in wanting to be willing to talk to all on any issue, but he's showing a bit of naivete here; principally the fact that Ahmed Ahmadinejad doesn't run Iran. All he had to do was google who runs Iran to get this.

In addition, it certainly seems like the quasi-official media in Iran is mocking Lula:

While no Iranian government officials commented on the Brazilian president’s plea, Jahan News, an ultraconservative news service in Iran that is regarded as credibly reflecting the government’s thinking, said Sunday that it was a “clear interference in Iran’s domestic affairs.”

Jahan also said that the Brazilian offer was made “under the influence of foreign media” and that the defendant, Sakineh Ashtiani, 43, might not be stoned to death because Iran’s judiciary was reviewing the lower court’s sentence. She could be hanged instead.

Memo to Lula: the government of Iran is brutal and repressive. It's the same sort of government you rebelled against in your own country. They've played you in the past and they just mocked you. Bear that in mind the next time they need a favor from you. Perhaps telling it like it is might be a better route to take in the future. He certainly

Better to Jaw-Jaw . . .

I believe that Greg and Boz strike the right notes here regarding Brazil's attempts to broker a deal with Iran to stop processing enriched nuclear fuel. As Brazil and Turkey say that a deal is imminent, why not keep an open mind?

It won't be Lula's failure if the deal doesn't pan out any more than it would be any other country's failure. What bothers me is the tone coming from some in the media, who Boz links to, especially Mac Margolis of Newsweek, Paulo Sotero of Foreign Policy and the overall tone of this article in Saturday's New York Times. Julia sweig, once again is being sensible:

Julia Sweig, also of the Council on Foreign Relations, said Brazil was exercising its own version of what America often did.

“Americans believe that only they can cast themselves halfway around the world to refashion events on the ground, and expect the international community to defer,” she said. “Brazil, too, and for similar reasons, is motivated to insert itself on an issue seemingly beyond its natural interest.”

These are the facts:

• The US has no influence in Iran
• China and Russia do, but they are not particularly willing to get significantly involved

What is wrong with Brazil at least making an attempt? Their diplomats are among the most skilled in the world.

Birds Coming Home to Roost

More than five years after Brazil won a decision in the WTO on US cotton subsidies and after all appeals have been exhausted, with the initial decision upheld, Brazil is finally talking specific sanctions:

Brazil will seek to break intellectual property rights on U.S.-made prescription drugs, music, books, software and movies in a bid to force the U.S. government to end cotton subsidies that violate global trade rules.

Brazil’s government submitted a list of products that may have royalties, copyrights and patents suspended as part of $829 million in retaliatory sanctions authorized by the World Trade Organization, according to a statement published today in the country’s official gazette.

And what is the predictable response from the GOP and their toadies? Place the blame on the current administration. So let's get this straight: because President Obama could not resolve in one year what the Bush administration effectively ignored for four years and the blame is solely on the current administration.

That self-awareness train rolls by and the GOP refuses to hop on board.

Brazil's Role in the Mideast

I  think Greg largely has it right here. Given the skills of Brazil's diplomats fresh faces may very well help.

it's All in the Timing

Boz asks some good questions about Brazil and Lula:

Is it Brazil? Or is it Lula? Does Brazil get this seat because they are a rising regional and global power with real political, economic and diplomatic influence? Or does Lula sit there because he's a global rockstar, someone whose sheer personal presence seems to be a force on the international diplomatic stage?

Yes, Brazil now has real political, economic and diplomatic influence. For years Brazil has had the canniest diplomatics in Latin America, if not the entire hemisphere. The economic credibility started to come into focus when inflation was successfully tamed in the 1990's and has been generally improving since, with an occasional hiccup. The current decade has been about the best and Lula's leadership is a significant part of the reason.

The political influence has developed as a result of the improved economic influence as well as Lula's ability to deal successfully with leaders across the political spectrum.

So the short answer is probably all of the above.

Lula to Meet With Ahmadinejad

I hope the fact that Lula is willing to talk with Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is more indicative of his willingness to dialogue with pretty much everyone. As the article indicates, he has also hosted a visit recently with Shimon Peres. I believe Michael Shifter gets it right here:

“This is part of Brazil projecting its role and strength as a global player,” said Michael Shifter, vice president of the Inter-American Dialogue, a policy research group in Washington. “And part of this has to do with Brazil sending a message to Washington that it will deal whomever it wants to deal with.”

and Julia Sweig gets it right as well:

“Brazil should expect criticism for hosting Ahmadinejad to be sure,” said Julia E. Sweig, a Latin America expert at the Council on Foreign Relations. “But if it can play a moderating role — and clearly Washington is hoping as much — on the nuclear issue, it can surely deal with the critics.”

Despite the critics, I don't believe that you can lump this as the same sort of visit that one might expect to Hugo Chavez's Venezuela. It's worth remembering despite not seeing eye-to-eye with the Bush adminstration, Lula managed to have cordial relations with Bush.

I do hope, however, Lula remembers and makes clear to Ahmadinejad that he (Lula) was a key player in Brazil's move from a dictatorship to direct elections free of widespread fraud. The people of Iran deserve nothing less.

Payback Is a Bitch

Finally, all those years after Brazil won a victory against the US in the WTO on the subject of cotton subsidies, the South American nation has been granted permission to impose sanctions of approximately 295 million dollars.

Here's where  it may have it's strongest impact against the US:

[Brazil's Ambassador to the WTO, Roberto] Azevedo explained that some of the sanctions can only be applied to goods while others can <i>to a limited extent, target intellectual property and services</i>.

"We ... find that it is regrettable that the United States has not yet complied with the determination of the multilateral trading system after the US subsidies have been condemned several times," he said.

"In our view this continued disregard of WTO rules by a key member of the WTO is a cause for concern" in the midst of negotiations to try to revive the Doha Round of trade liberalisation talks, said Azevedo. [my emphasis]

This may be one of the US's largest exports to Brazil and the impact, while significantly diminished from Brazil's request, could be significant.

As for this comment by the US trade representative,

President Barack Obama's administration "will be actively consulting within the US government and with stakeholders on how to move forward" on the issue, said Carol Guthrie, spokeswoman for the US Trade Representative.

There's a simple solution to this: get rid of the subsidies. Once they're gone so are the sanctions.

Lula Fail

Greg has the details here.

Lula Interview

Fareed Zakaria interviewed Lula in Newsweek and it's a good read. There are two important takeaways fom this. Here's the first:

In six years we have lifted 20 million people out of poverty and into the middle class, brought electricity into 10 million households and increased the minimum wage every year. All without hurting anyone, without insulting anyone, without picking fights.

Unlike someone leading a country just north of Brazil, perhaps?

Then there's this:

You are regarded as a great symbol of democracy in the Americas. And yet some people say you have been quiet as Hugo Chávez has destroyed democracy in Venezuela. Why not speak out? If Brazil wants a greater role in the world, wouldn't that be one part, to stand for certain values?
Well, maybe we cannot agree with Venezuelan democracy, but no one can say that there is no democracy in Venezuela. He has been through five, six elections. I've only had two.

He has gangs out on the street. This is not real democracy.
Look, we have to respect the local cultures, the political traditions of each country. Given that I have 84 percent support in the public-opinion polls, I could propose an amendment to the Constitution for a third term. I don't believe in that. But Chávez wanted to stay … I believe that changing the president is important for the strengthening of democracy itself. [my emphasis]

Much is made by his opponents as to Lula's lack of formal education, but one thing is clear: he knows the value of institutions for the purpose of effecting permanent change as opposed to someone sho graduated from Venezuela's oldest military academy and who believes that the ongoing rule of one man is essential for effecting permanent change.