I didn't write much about the presidential election in Ecuador as Boz seemed to have it well covered, but there are some larger issues at play here and one I particularly want to focus on is the failure. by and large, of the right in presidential elections in Latin America.
Yes, there are some exceptions and the most obvious one is Alvaro Uribe on Colombia. Felipe Calderon is not a particularly strong example as he barely won a plurality of votes in a deeply divided country. Vicente Fox won in a nation tired of the rancid PRI and was largely ineffective. I really can't consider Alan Garcia to be a right-winger. While more conservative than Ollanta Humala, that hardly makes him a right-winger. I'm more conservative than Noam Chomsky, but that doesn't make me a rightie.
Part of the problem in my mind clearly lies with the dictatorial traditions of the right in Latin America. While there have been left-wing dictators in Latin America, the weight of the anti-democratic tradition lies with the right. For every Castro or Noriega, there have been Videlas, Stroessners, Banzers, Medicis, Pinochets, Somozas in abundance.
The larger issue is also the failure of the neoliberal model to lift people out of poverty, the continued concentration of wealth and power in the hands of oligarchs and the sadly bipartisan continuation of corruption and impunity that sours so many on their governments.
There are some simple solutions for the right to weaken the influence of the left and populism in Latin America. A couple of obvious ones are to strive for economic justice for all and investing in your public through infrastucture improvements and education come to mind very quickly. Insulting people whose lot in life is much worse than yours will get you nowhere.
Nothing occurs in a vacuum. If the right wants to combat populism, make sure that more opportunity exists for more of your citizens. If you want to extol the virtues of capitalism make it just. Right now in much of Latin America it is anything but just.
I was actually thinking about this the other day:
It seems to me that the authoritarian influence is shifting way leftwards these days. During the Cold War, you had authoritarian governments on the right seizing power under the fear/pretext of communism. Now, withouth that threat, there really isn't anything to support said dictatorships (outside of maybe narcotrafficking in Colombia).
On the other hand, leftist dictators, or leaders with such tendencies, can rally around anti-Americanism and anti-globalization.
I think a good portion of Latin America is maturing democratically (see Brazil, Chile, Uruguay maybe Peru), but the danger is that all it takes is one Morales, one Chavez or maybe one Correa (not sure on him yet) to create a constituent assembly, pack the courts and rewrite the constitution.
My *hope* is that Chile, Brazil and other such countries continue to do well on both the economic and political fronts and can gradually persuade countries on the edge back to the middle. Kind of a neoliberalism with more effort to redistribute wealth, improve education, health, etc.
FYI - You know a lot more about Brazil then I do, and I am well aware of the "Brazil is the country of the future and always will be" mantra, but I am very optimistic about that country. I know they have problems with government spending and education such, but there are really some key factors for growth that are present: stable political system, economies of scale, sophisticated capital markets and corporations, good energy resources (ethanol, oil), etc. I was shocked by how developed most of Brazil was when I was there last year.
Posted by: bcgreene | November 30, 2006 at 12:43 PM
I really think that the major difference here is that whether you like them or not Chavez and Morales were democratically elected.
My *hope* is that Chile, Brazil and other such countries continue to do well on both the economic and political fronts and can gradually persuade countries on the edge back to the middle. Kind of a neoliberalism with more effort to redistribute wealth, improve education, health, etc.
I agree. Many of the oligarchs in Latin America are reaping what they sowed for so long. If they don't like the fact that the poor are voting in ways they don't like, the obvious solution would be to make sure fewer people were poor.
Regarding Brazil, no question that it defies easy pigeonholing at least for the average norteamericano (and I don't consider you to be an average norteamericano), but as much as I love it, it's still an incredibly unjust society. Infrastructure including and especially education needs to be a major priority.
Posted by: Randinho | November 30, 2006 at 10:54 PM