Handicapping Chile's Next Presidential Election

The Santiago Times is discussing the 2005 Chilean Presidential Election in today's free article*. There are a few breaks in the conventional wisdom:

Next on the list of “sure things” is that Santiago Mayor Joaquin Lavin, a member of the far-right Independent Democratic Union (UDI) party and the de facto head of the opposition Alliance for Chile coalition, will run – again. In early 2000, Lavin narrowly lost to Lagos in a runoff election. Since then the popular mayor has enjoyed nearly uncontested front-runner status.

If Lavin is finally going to win the presidency, now’s the time to do it, say the pundits. By the time President Lagos leaves office, the center-left Concertacion coalition will have been in power for the entire 16 consecutive years since democracy returned in 1990. The country is ready for a change,they say, and the right-wing Santiago mayor may be just the man to bring it.

Unfortunately for Lavin, there are a few things working against him. Chief among them is the economy. Chile is supposed to be in the dumps right now, or at last that’s what Lavin’s numerous allies in the business world likely predicted when Lagos, a long-time member of the Socialist Party, came into office.

But unemployment is down, average incomes are up, copper prices are through the roof and exports as a whole, aided in large part by a slew of recently signed Free Trade Agreements (FTAs), are increasing significantly. In other words, many of the things that Lavin, by winning the presidency for the conservative Alliance, was supposed to fix, turn out not to be that broken.

There's also a bit of a nasty schism in the two right-wing parties that make up the Alliance for Chile:

Another problem gnawing away at the mayor’s popularity is the fact that Alliance for Chile’s two member groups – the UDI and the National Renovation (RN) party – have spent the last six months at each others throats. Simmering tensions between the RN and UDI have simply gotten out of hand. The intra-coalition drama, far from resolved, culminated last month in a nationally televised courtroom showdown over the UDI’s attempt to try RN Dep. Pia Guzman on defamation charges (ST, March 19, 23-24). Things eventually got so bad that Lavin forced the presidents of the respective parties to resign (ST, March 11-12). In the meantime, however, he’s having difficulty deflecting criticism from the Concertacion, which can’t help asking the question, ‘If Lavin can’t manage his own coalition, how is he planning to run the country?’

The allegations that led to charges of defamation deal with an alleged pedophile ring involving members of the UDI party, allegations which appear to be credible regarding the existence of the pedophile ring, but not credible regarding the involvement of the UDI members. The major beneficiary of this, even though she has not announced for the presidency is Dr. Michelle Bachelet, the Minister of Defense who I discussed here and who was profiled here.

The Santiago Mayor’s third problem is actually two problems – Defense Minister Michelle Bachelet and Foreign Affairs Minster Soledad Alvear. Neither of the high-profile minister’s has declared herself a candidate for next year’s elections. So far they haven’t had to – the media’s done it for them. And, despite the fact that Chile’s never had a female head-of-state, the idea that either Bachelet or Alvear could succeed President Lagos appears to be catching on – and quickly.

Could a country that was just two decades ago in the throes of a right-wing military dictatorship really elect a center or center-left female president? The answer is maybe, at least according to recent polls suggesting that were the elections held now, Lavin could expect to lose to either of the popular ministers (ST, March 26, 31). The latest numbers show the charismatic defense minister ahead of Lavin by as much as 20 percentage points. Alvear’s advantage, at least according to the polls, is about 5 percentage points.

Bachelet's story os fascinating. She also gets high marks for her stewardship of the military. She certainly sounds like a formidable candidate.

*Which you'd better hurry and read as it will not be available tomorrow.

Comments

[Brian Greene]

Now this excites me! Last year, when I was in Chile, my friends kept on telling me that Lavin was a lock to be the next President. I replied that three years was an eternity in politics, Lagos was doing a great job, and that when the economy bounced back, Lavin was going to be in trouble - He was too far ahead and had nowhere to go but down. Both these women would do an excellent job.

[Randy Paul]

I agree. Bachelet's story is especially interesting.