It appears that the polls are holding up and that Efraín Rios Montt has lost his bid to become a legitimate president of Guatemala. It appears that a runoff will be necessary between the top two candidates, Oscar Berger and Alvaro Colom. ¡Mantenga sus dedos cruzados!
As I mentioned here and here, Rios Montt's followers are not known for their democratic tendencies. Also, according to press reports, Rios Montt has not been seen in public since he voted on Sunday and his campaign staff is not answering their phones.
What may await Rios Montt now and at long last may be justice; at the moment he has parliamentary immunity due to his roles as senator and President of Congress, roles which he will relinquish in January along with the parliamentary immunity. I'm sure that the long-awaited judicial knives are sharpening. Good for them.
Given the brutal nature of Rios Montt's followers, the wild card here will be their reaction when the anticipated results become official:
The BBC's Claire Marshall in Guatemala City says people will be watching the reactions of Mr Rios Montt's supporters, and particularly the former paramilitary groups, if his first-round defeat is confirmed.
Don't uncross your fingers.
I hope he goes to the slammer. Guatemala needs it.
Posted by: Michael J. Totten | November 10, 2003 at 10:48 PM
Perhaps it's an unrighteous wish; but there is a vision of my heart of Rios Montt sharing a cellblock in Spandau Prison with Slobodan Milosevic, George W. Bush, Osama bin Laden, and Ariel Sharon.
Posted by: Alan Bostick | November 11, 2003 at 11:40 AM
Alan,
Hey maybe we can put Bill and Hillary Clinton in there too. Perhaps we can put every right-of-center person into a prison and then everything will be perfect.
Posted by: Michael J. Totten | November 11, 2003 at 02:13 PM
Yes, that was sarcasm.
Posted by: Michael J. Totten | November 11, 2003 at 02:13 PM
even if i dont get the cell with ann coulter, i am not giving up my vast right wing conspiracy decoder ring when they send me up. and spandau prison isnt there anymore; they knocked it down after rudolf hess hung himself
Posted by: akaky | November 11, 2003 at 05:11 PM
The things you learn in the comments sections!
Posted by: bandiera | November 11, 2003 at 07:02 PM
Even if it's too early to celebrate, this is still good news. It means Rios Montt's country stronghold isn't so damn strong any more.
As for "justice"? Well, maybe, but I ain't holding my breath. Ex-dictators are a slipp'ry lot. He and his band of Banditos may already have cleared out.
Posted by: maja | November 11, 2003 at 10:13 PM
Actually Rios Montt and Ariel Sharon are probably old buddies. Israel was instrumental in keeping the Guatemalan military afloat in the 1980s when the US Congress cut off military aid. Guatemala was riddled with Israeli advisors in the 1980s and Israel built armament factories in Guatemala to keep them going. Here's a site with some information on the Guatemala-Israel linkage and secret linkages to the Reagan Administration.
http://www.thirdworldtraveler.com/Middle_East/Israel_Guatemala.html
Posted by: Kent Lind | November 11, 2003 at 11:10 PM
Kent,
Links to the Reagan Administration aren't exactly secret. But the Cold War is over now, and the US came out against Rios Montt before the election.
Posted by: Michael J. Totten | November 12, 2003 at 02:06 AM
Michael, I was just commenting on Alan's post in which he put Montt and Sharon in the same sentence, suggesting that the connection may be far deeper than he realized.
I'm fully aware that the US came out against Montt. He would have been a complete embarrasment for the Bush Administration BECAUSE of all the past linkages.
Luckily the majority of Guatemalans are as eager to move on as everyone else.
Posted by: Kent Lind | November 12, 2003 at 10:06 AM
Maja,
Don't count on Rios Montt and his ilk clearing out of Guatemala. Corruption is heavily entrenched there and the FRG is widely regarded as the hotbed of corruption.
Akaky,
Ann Coulter? Please, physically speaking if I had to be cooped up with a blond female rightwinger, give me Laura Ingram any day.
Posted by: Randy Paul | November 12, 2003 at 05:29 PM
Randy: if I had to be cooped up with a blond female rightwinger, give me Laura Ingram any day.
Here here. She is so much smarter and nicer than Ann Coulter.
Posted by: Michael J. Totten | November 12, 2003 at 07:53 PM
I was thinking more of the physical aspects, although she is nicer and smarter than Ann Coulter (not to grade too much on the curve). Of course if I was going for looks and conversation, I think I'd go for Katrina Vanden Heuvel - or Salma Hayek ;-)
Posted by: Randy Paul | November 12, 2003 at 08:08 PM
Randy: Don't count on Rios Montt and his ilk clearing out of Guatemala. Corruption is heavily entrenched there and the FRG is widely regarded as the hotbed of corruption.
I'm not counting on it. I spent some time in Guatemala back in '78 and am at least marginally aware of the area and its history. I had the misfortune of seeing the Guardia Civil up close and too damn near personal on several occasions. It's not an experience I'd care to repeat. And corruption, as I'm sure you understand, was the least of it.
I'm afraid I was being flip based on the observation that he hadn't been seen for a while and nobody knew where he was.
Or maybe it was wishful thinking of the "If only he would..." variety. After all, we can dream, can't we?
Posted by: maja | November 13, 2003 at 05:15 AM
i believe we would all rather be with salma hayek, but as a hollywood type she will be tossing my republican keister into the pokey, not sharing a cell, much as i might want her to. i like laura ingraham too, and i liked her new book, shut up and sing, a lot, but she seems like a very sound and sensible young woman and i dont seem to connect well with sound and sensible young women, although their mothers invariable think i'm wonderful. no, i'm afraid if i'm in a cell its got to be with annie, if only to maintain me and my brothers ongoing need to be involved with psychotic blondes. if i have to be in a cell i'd prefer to be in a cell with someone whose politics i agree with for the most part. as for ms vandenheuvel, i fear that millionaire socialists leave a bad taste in my mouth; to me they inevitably seem like they're hedging their bets, like komarovsky in dr zhivago.
Posted by: akaky | November 13, 2003 at 02:35 PM
as for rios montt, the cold war is over and the need to support such specimens, at least in latin america, is equally over. let the guatamalans hang him from a lamp post.
Posted by: akaky | November 13, 2003 at 02:40 PM
Or maybe it was wishful thinking of the "If only he would..." variety. After all, we can dream, can't we?
Maja indeed we can!
Akaky,
I don't think that we need to ever support such specimens.
i fear that millionaire socialists leave a bad taste in my mouth; to me they inevitably seem like they're hedging their bets, like komarovsky in dr zhivago.
I don't believe that Ms. Vande Heuvel is a socialist in so may words, although she is a leftist and we know that those are not synonymous. In any event, I feel the same way about a woman raised in New Canaan, Connecticut, writes how to books and acts like one of the hoi polloi or an ex-president born in the lap of New England Yankee luxury who doesn't even know what an optical price scanner is, but tries to act like jus' folks by announcing publicly that his favorite snack is pork rinds.
Posted by: Randy Paul | November 13, 2003 at 09:36 PM
has never eaten a pork rind, and if she wants to act like the hoi polloi so much the better; it improves my chances, given that there is no one as hoi as my polloi
Posted by: akaky | November 14, 2003 at 10:05 AM
i have no idea what that means
Posted by: akaky | November 14, 2003 at 10:07 AM