Well, I got back from Austin late last night making it my 6th different airport in five days and I'm still a little weary. I'd like to give a round up of some recent Latin American News. Next week I'll try to make some posts about some personal observations about Brazil this trip.
CHILE
Arguably the most socially conservative country in Latin America, Chile is finally perched on the edge of allowing for divorce to be legalized. The Roman Catholic Church, a powerful institution in the country has managed to extend its influence into the process:
But the measure -- still subject to debate and unlikely to go into effect until next year at the earliest -- closes a loophole that thousands of Chileans use every year to dissolve their marriages in this socially conservative country.
And under pressure from the influential Roman Catholic Church, which argues that divorce will harm families and children, lawmakers have decided to include in the proposal requirements that couples seek counseling and wait three to five years after separating to apply for a divorce.
"The truth is the new law is a step backward. The church couldn't win the war, so it got all these things added to the bill to make divorce more difficult," said lawyer Cesar Pinochet Elorza, who for 30 years has handled marriage-ending cases known as nullities.
Currently if a married Chilean couple agrees to split up, they can go to court and say their marriage should be voided because they were married in the wrong registry office. That is one that was outside the jurisdiction in which they lived.
The judge then decrees the marriage null and void.
The so-called nullity is based on an agreement by all parties -- the couple, lawyers, witnesses and the judge -- to lie about the registry office. The maneuver is common. Cabinet ministers, senators and even President Ricardo Lagos have done it.
As a happily married Roman Catholic, I have to say that I really wish the Church would adopt a more realistic attitude toward this matter.
ARGENTINA
Justice continues to pick up speed in Argentina. The British Government is holding former Iranian Ambassador to Argentina, Hade Soleimanpur on an arrest warrant for allegations of his involvement in the bombing of the AMIA Jewish Center in Buenos Aires in July 1994. The attack left 85 dead and more than 200 wounded. Also, the Argentine Senate approved the lifting of the amnesty laws that prevented the prosecution of human rights abusers from the 1970's. President Kirchner is expected to sign the bill, but the Supreme Court is expected to have the last word.
BRAZIL
The main news from Brazil over the past two days has been the explosion of the rocket in Alcântara in the state of Maranhão. The loss of life is truly tragic, but Larry Rohter makes a good point in the linked article:
But two previous efforts, in 1997 and 1999, to launch a rocket designed and manufactured by Brazilians failed, giving Brazilian comedians an opportunity for jokes and leading to criticisms that the space program is a costly vanity for a country where millions of people go hungry each day.
The Aerospace Technology Center in São José dos Campos is also the location of the headquarters of Embraer, the hugely successful aircraft manufacturer, that a few years ago accounted for 25% of all of Brazil's exports and is currrently building a plant in the USA. Why not privatize the effort?
COLOMBIA
Marcela Sanchez, while acknowledging President Álvaro Uribe's progress, sounds a cautionary note on the recent praise given to Colombia:
Yet if the goal is to achieve peace in Colombia, talk of success should be taken with a grain of salt. Colombia is getting better grades, but too much praise threatens to obscure the unique alignment of forces that has brought initial success.
U.S. military analysts both inside and outside the Bush administration widely agree that the major rebel group fighting the government in Colombia, the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia, known as FARC, may never be defeated militarily in the traditional sense.
The FARC understands tenacity, having survived 40 years of civil conflict and 11 presidents. So being put on the defensive may mean only a tactical retreat. They may be willing to shore up their resources and wait for the current military momentum to wear down or even for Uribe to leave office.
[edit]
Since taking office a year ago this month, Uribe has begun new efforts to demobilize right-wing paramilitary groups. If successful, he would eliminate the most common and disturbing human rights violations often connected to the military for working in collusion with these brutal outlaws. Only then will Colombia be able to accumulate military victories free of the suspicion that it is relying on paramilitaries to do its dirty work.
Despite Uribe's achievements, the balance of forces at this time could quickly shift to the FARC's favor. The fuel in the Colombian government's fire is the assistance from Washington. The guerrillas' principal funding remains the illegal drug business. Colombia's gains may be sustainable only as long as Washington's engagement there outlasts drug addiction or at least Colombia's role in drug trafficking.
That last paragraph is crucial. I am certainly no fan of Carlos Castaño, but I doubt if the FARC is even remotely capable of compromise. Uribe has accomplished a lot in a short time, but the road is long and sinuous.
VENEZUELA
The opposition to President Hugo Chávez delivered 3.2 million recall petition signatures - about 20% more than what was required - to the National Electoral Council for verification, starting the clock on the 90 day verification period that may result in Chávez being recalled from office. Meanwhile, today 100,000 Chávez supporters rallied against the referendum in Caracas.
Meanwhile Chávez's presidency has succeeded in dividing the art world in Venezuela, one of the most vital in Latin America.
CENTRAL AMERICA
Citing the dreaded Efraín Rios Montt, former FMLN leader Shafik Handal and former Sandinista leader Daniel Ortega, some in the Bush administration seem worried about a democratic meltdown in Central America. Andrés Oppenheimer thinks that their worries are exaggerated:
First, while their parties are leading in the polls or are the best organized in their respective countries, neither Guatemala's Ríos Montt, nor El Salvador's Handal, nor Nicaragua's Ortega is an attractive candidate.
On the contrary, polls show that Ríos Montt has only about 10 percent of voters' support, while Handal has about 9 percent.
'Ortega's 13.8 percent of voters' preferences doesn't mean anything, especially if you consider that the Sandinista party has a core base of 30 percent of the vote,'' says Carlos F. Chamorro, publisher of Nicaragua's political newsletter Confidencial.
Second, Salvadoran, Nicaraguan and Guatemalan expatriates in the United States -- whose remittances have become their native countries' largest single source of income -- are likely to help finance the campaigns of moderate candidates, giving them more resources than their rivals. Trans-national politics will play a larger role than usual in Central America's upcoming elections.
Third, the probable signing of a Central American free-trade agreement with the United States, scheduled to be announced in December this year, may give a boost to moderate candidates. They will be able to promise a rapid increase of exports to the United States, and thus give voters something to look forward to.
Your lips to God's ears. Do you ever wonder why you never hear the words democratic meltdown, Belize and Costa Rica in the same sentence? I sure wish someone in the other CA countries would bear that in mind.
MEXICO
The New York Times has a good editorial today about the collapse of Mexico's human rights efforts that seemed so promising when Vicente Fox took office:
Mr. Fox began boldly, opening up years of secret police files and appointing a special prosecutor to investigate human rights violators. He also signed a pioneering freedom of information law. Mr. Fox's first foreign minister, Jorge Castañeda, turned Mexico into a champion of international human rights, challenging the behavior of tyrants it had long excused, like Fidel Castro.
The problem has been follow-through. The truth commission Mr. Fox promised has yet to be created. The special prosecutor has been denied crucial files. The federal government has so far made minimal efforts to investigate the deaths of some 300 women, and the disappearances of scores of others, in the border city of Ciudad Juárez over the past decade. Mr. Castañeda's successor at the foreign ministry, Luis Ernesto Derbéz, has been far more muted on human rights issues, abolishing the post of deputy foreign minister for human rights and dismissing its highly regarded incumbent, Mariclaire Acosta.
It's worth noting that despite the canard that everyone on the left coddles Fidel Castro, Castañeda had strong leftist credentials and was largely responsible for changing Mexico's relationship with Cuba. Nothing like shattering a stereotype.
Type to you later.
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